Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair traded down for half of the day on Tuesday and up for the second half. Moreover, the growth in the US trading session was much stronger, and the pair has risen in price by the end of the day. Also, as in the case of the euro, there were no reasons for the pound's growth. Because there were no important events either in the US or in the UK. However, in technical terms, the pair has overcome the downward trend line, so it has the right to grow further. Although we are skeptical about the further appreciation of the British currency, we must admit that an upward movement is possible. It is still very difficult to say why this is the case. The situation may change this week when the US inflation report is released, but for now it is difficult to link the current fall in the dollar with the future report, given that no one knows the actual value.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The pound's situation in regards to trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe was much worse than for the euro. Horizontal movement was also observed in the first half of the day, but there was a level for the pound, near which the price was for most of the day. First, the level of 1.1479 was overcome, then two inaccurate rebounds from below followed. In total, novice traders could open two short positions using these signals. The first one was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven, the second one closed near the level of 1.1435, bringing traders a profit of about 20 points. Then we were a bit lucky, as the level 1.1435 was worked out perfectly in terms of accuracy and a buy signal was formed near it. The price after that just started a strong upward movement and stopped only near the level of 1.1550, rebounding from that. Therefore, the long position was closed in profit of 80 points, and in general today turned out to be very successful in terms of trading. The last sell signal - a rebound from the level of 1.1550 - should not have been worked out, since it was formed rather late.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the 30-minute time frame, but on Friday, Monday and Tuesday it showed an increase of 430 points. We believe that the market may start to sell the pair at any moment, but overcoming the trend line allows the British currency to continue rising for some time. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1356, 1.1435, 1.1479, 1.1550, 1.1608, 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1755. When the price passes after opening a position in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major reports or other events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK and US. However, Monday and Tuesday showed that the market continues to trade very actively, and the pair - to move volatilely. We can observe a similar picture on Wednesday.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
