After the next rebound from the $18,500 level, bitcoin seemed to start getting more expensive, but, as it turned out, it was just "acceleration" before a new attempt to overcome the $18,500 level. And now, everything looks like this attempt will be successful. Even on the 24-hour TF, it is visible that the quotes have already consolidated below the 127.2% Fibonacci level. There was no rebound from it this time, so we stick to our old forecast: bitcoin will continue to fall to at least $12,426.
What was the reason for the collapse of bitcoin by $ 3,000? Nothing. Of course, you can try to find a relevant factor and point it out, but over the past five months, bitcoin has ignored several rate hikes by central banks, particularly the Fed. Events that cannot be ignored and are "bearish" for bitcoin. Thus, we believe that market participants have been waiting for a positive fundamental background for a long time, but they did not wait for it, so they began to get rid of the riskiest asset again. As we have already said, the "bear market" can persist for several more months completely freely because the Fed will not stop tightening monetary policy. At least three more rate increases are already known and scheduled for the next meetings. Maybe there will be more of them, and now everything depends on inflation in the United States. If it remains at a high value, the Fed will have more and more reasons to continue raising the rate. And even considering that the Fed is likely to slow down the rate hikes, it will still grow; that is, for bitcoin, it is still a "bearish" factor.
Therefore, we do not see how bitcoin can grow at least to the upper border of the side channel – the level of $24,350. The current price only on paper looks "very attractive." As we can see, real traders and investors are in no hurry to buy cryptocurrency. Even forecasts of $100,000 and more do not help to provoke an increase in demand for the first cryptocurrency in the world.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" finally attempted to overcome the $18,500. Now, from our point of view, the fall may continue with a target of $12,426. A rebound from the $18,500 level may still happen since the current day has not yet closed. A "false breakdown" is also possible. However, if the cryptocurrency has been trading in a limited range for five months at the very "bottom," then sooner or later, it must overcome this "bottom."
