After the midterm elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate were held last week, there was a very interesting situation with counting votes. If you look at the map of the USA at this time, it is almost all "red," which symbolizes the victory of the Republicans in almost every state. However, this picture is observed because almost all the largest districts voted for Republicans and small ones - for Democrats. In the USA, there is a special electoral system in which it does not matter how many votes are cast for the Republicans or which one is for the Democrats. A victory of 50% plus one vote is required in each particular district. Accordingly, any candidate can win by a margin of 100 votes or get 100% of the votes. The result will not change as a result of this. And at the moment, according to The Associated Press, 203 Democrats and 212 Republicans have passed the House of Representatives. Remember that 218 congressmen are needed to win the House of Representatives. None of the parties has gained the necessary majority to control the lower house.
It is also very interesting that the results for 80% of the seats in Congress became known almost the next day. However, the last 20-30 places are counted very hard for a long time. This is again due to the system itself since if one or another candidate gets the required number of votes, the result automatically becomes known. Just a few days ago, the Democrats were close to losing the elections even to the Senate, where they have an advantage in the form of Kamala Harris' vote, which is used if there is complete equality during the vote. If Democrats and Republicans get 49 senatorial seats each, it will mean a victory for the Democrats. So, a few days ago, the Democrats were close to conceding the number of seats in the Senate. Still, just this weekend, it became known that Mark Kelly won in Arizona, and Catherine Cortez Masto won in the neighboring state of Nevada, overtaking Adam Laxalt from the Republican Party literally at the finish line. Nevada remains the only state where the results are still unknown for certain, and another state will hold re-elections in early December. However, if Catherine Cortez Masto does not miss the victory (98% of the votes have been counted at the moment, and Masto's advantage is 48.8% against 48.1%), this will mean that the Democrats get the 49th seat in the Senate, and the Republicans, at best, at the expense of Georgia, will equal them. The Democrats' victory in the more significant chamber is already in their pocket.
Given how the US currency has declined in recent weeks, I do not think that the US elections also had their share of influence on market sentiment. The sooner the elections are over and the results are known for certain, the sooner this factor will cease to be taken into account by the market, and we will be able to focus on the economy.
Based on the analysis, the construction of the upward trend section has become more complicated than a five-wave one. It continues due to the inflation report and unflattering statements by FOMC members. However, I cannot advise buying now since the wave marking still needs to imply a further increase. I advise selling in case of an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0359 mark with targets located near the estimated 0.9994 mark, which corresponds to 323.6% Fibonacci.
