On Monday, US stock indices fell amid growing unrest in China caused by restrictions had a negative impact on global markets. The US dollar depreciated after stabilizing during the Asian session on risk aversion. US Treasury bonds rose.
Futures on the S&P 500 index lost more than 0.9%, while the NASDAQ index was down more than 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.6%. European stock market indices fell, and the reason for it are oil companies, which lost the most because of the sharp decline in oil prices.
The brewing turmoil in China is affecting expectations about the country's continued path to unlock the economy from restrictions. This diminishes the prospect of more moderate interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which have allowed investors to turn their attention back to riskier assets. Traders who used to bet that China might abandon its Covid Zero policy sooner than expected are now beginning to change their minds.
Meanwhile, China's economy is unlikely to re-open soon. It may ill put it at greater risk than previously expected. Endless and pointless lockdowns may lead to a serious health care crisis and slower GDP growth this year. US-listed Chinese stocks have already fallen sharply during the premarket trading, with Internet companies being hit the most. Apple Inc. have fallen because of information that a disturbance at its key manufacturing center in China has begun, which could lead to disruptions in production of nearly 6 million iPhone Pro devices.
Oil has fallen sharply and is trading at its lowest level since December, as a wave of unrest in China is also affecting demand, overshadowing demand for risky assets as well. Gold recovered from the previous decline that occurred amid the US dollar strengthening.
After the Fed meeting, investors digested a lot of economic data, which eased fears about inflation. Thus, a smaller rate hike is expected but so far it is not giving much support to the stock indices. All eyes will be on the US jobs report this week, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams' speeches.
As for the S&P 500 index, the pressure on the trading instrument has returned. Bulls now need to protect the support level of $4,000. As long as the index is trading above this level, the demand for risky assets may persist. This is likely to strengthen the trading instrument and return the level of $4,038 under control. If the price pierces $4,064, it may start a further upward correction with the target at resistance of $4,091. The next target is located in the area of $4,116. If the S&P 500 index declines, bulls should defend the psychologically important level of $4,000. If this level is broken through, the trading instrument may be pushed down to $3,968, opening the way to a new support of $3,942.
