Analyzing Wednesday's trades:
GBP/USD on 30M chart
GBP/USD was sluggish for most of the day, but towards the evening it started to rise again. The pair's growth on Tuesday was triggered by the US inflation report, and on Wednesday, the market could react to the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. I still believe that all the dovish factors for the dollar were worked out by the market, and the British currency as a whole continues its absolutely groundless growth. But at the same time you can't argue with the market. Moreover, there is an ascending trend line on the 30-minute chart, and it managed to resist the bears' attack this week. What to expect from the Fed is almost certain. The rate will grow 0.5%, which traders may take as a new signal to sell the dollar. And what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is going to say is a big question. Though, his speech is likely to be disadvantageous for the US currency.
GBP/USD on M5 chart
Speaking of trading signals, it was quite complicated on the 5-minute chart. The problem is that the pair also showed very low volatility during the day. All the trading signals were formed near 1.2371, which was deemed irrelevant on the day. All trading signals of the day were false, so beginners could try to work out only the first two. In both cases, the price failed to pass even 20 points in the right direction, which would be enough to place the Stop Loss to Breakeven. Both trades closed with a loss. The last buy signal could have been executed while looking towards the results of the Fed meeting. But it is necessary to set a Stop Loss on this transaction if beginners intend to wait for the results.
Trading tips on Thursday:
The pound's movements on the 30-minute chart have been very confusing, but the uptrend is still there. It is weak and uncertain, but it persists. The first "flight" for this week has passed successfully, there are at least two more ahead. And they can be in any direction. On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2141, 1.2186-1.2205, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2329-1.2337, 1.2371, 1.2471-1.2477, 1.2577-1.2597-1.2616. As soon as the price passes 20 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Thursday, the results of the Bank of England meeting will be announced in the UK, which is very important and quite interesting along with the European Central Bank meeting. Naturally, we expect high volatility and sharp reversals. In the US, we will receive some reports that aren't as important. On top of that, the market may continue to work out the results of the Fed meeting.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
