Analyzing Thursday's trades:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
EUR/USD moved in the same horizontal channel as before. We characterized this channel as 1.0587-1.0736, but in fact it is much narrower, not more than 100 pips. So, we have a flat with all the ensuing consequences. The first report of the week, which was worth paying attention to, was published on Thursday. The US released its final report on GDP for the third quarter, which was more positive than forecasts and expectations. The USD actually rose in the afternoon (maybe because of the report), but this growth did not make any sense since the pair is still within the horizontal channel. That is why the technical pattern didn't change and beginners should wait until the pair is no longer in a flat, or just trade between its limits on the 5-minute chart. Friday's macroeconomic background isn't any better, so I think the flat will persist. Nevertheless, if EUR manages to settle below 1.0587, it might signal the start of a bearish correction, which we have been waiting for three weeks.
EUR/USD on M5 chart
Speaking of trading signals, it's safe to say that novice traders were lucky again. The pair formed only one trading signal in the area of 1.0587-1.0607, which didn't appear until the evening. Thus, formally, there was a signal, but it was impossible to use it. In the European session, the price was 3 pips away from 1.0663, which can be considered as a margin of error, but I think that 3 pips is too much for the euro. In any case, if beginners opened short positions, they made a profit on that trade. If not, there was no loss or profit for the day.
Trading tips on Friday:
On the 30-minute chart, the pair is still in the 1.0587-1.0736 horizontal channel. Thus, in order to count on at least some kind of trend, it is necessary for the pair to leave this range. The direction will be determined by which limit the pair decides to cross. So far, there are more chances of crossing the lower limit of the channel. On the 5-minutes chart on Friday, it is recommended to trade on the levels 1.0465-1.0483, 1.0536, 1.0587-1.0607, 1.0663, 1.0697, 1.0736, 1.0787, 1.0806. As soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Friday, there are no important events scheduled in the European Union, while the US will release secondary reports on personal income and expenditures of the American population and orders for durable goods. Theoretically, those reports could trigger a move, but in reality there is not much chance of that.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
