Daily chart: The USDJPY pair is trying to break the support at the 98.25 level. If the pair manages to break that level, the fall could be extended to the next support level at 96.38. For now, the pair tries to establish a bearish trend in this chart, but it is very likely that this conduct a bullish rebound at the current level and up again to the resistance at the 99.81 level. However, we must bear in mind that the USDJPY pair remains above the moving average, which still keeps alive the bullish trend in the long term. The MACD indicator is in negative territory and still no signs of extreme oversold.
H4 chart: This pair was consolidated below the 200-day moving average, which could indicate that this pair would begin to develop a bearish trend in the medium term. Now, the USDJPY pair is trying to break the support at the 98.27 level and is forming a higher low pattern near that level. If the pair manages to break that, it would be expected to fall to the level of 97.00. On the other hand, if the USDJPY pair does make a bullish rebound is expected to rise to the level of 99.05, very close to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator is showing oversold levels and weakness in the current trend of this pair, so we must be cautious.
H1 chart: USDJPY is forming a higher low pattern, below the resistance level at 98.38. If this pair does break the support at the level of 98.04, it is expected to drop to the level of 97.64. On the other hand, if USDJPY manages to break the resistance at 98.38 level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 98.85. For now, this pair has not yet formed a Point of Control (POC) that could define a general trend for this week. The MACD indicator is moving into positive territory and is extremely oversold, so we must be very cautious, however, this pair remains below the 200-day moving average.
Fundamental outlook: For the today's session the Household Spending (Previous: -1.6% / Forecast: 1.2%) will be published at 23:30 GMT in Japan.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD/JPY pair breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 98.04, take profit is at 97.64, and stop loss is at 98.45.
