On the 4-hour chart, it is clearly visible that Bitcoin continues to move mainly sideways, which fully meets our expectations. Recall that in 2022, Bitcoin was traded according to the "collapse – flat - collapse" trading strategy. So despite crossing the ascending trend line, we can now observe a long flat.
Few people will deny the fact that 2022 was a failure for many investors. This is especially true for those who have invested in digital assets and cryptocurrencies. Recently, for some reason, we have not heard anything about NFT, and the most famous cryptocurrency in the world has lost about 70% of its value. In fairness, please keep in mind that not all cryptocurrencies ended last year with such a "great" result. However, it also makes no sense to deny the fact that most crypto investors have lost their capital. For example, exactly a year ago, the number of Bitcoin millionaires was almost 100,000 but now it's at 28,000. So in just a year their number has decreased by 70%, which fully corresponds to the size of the drop of Bitcoin itself.
Many people are holding out hope for so-called institutional investors. It is believed that they are the ones who drive the market, and if they start to increase investments in Bitcoin again, then the bullish trend might recover, and smaller traders will join them as well. However, neither big investors nor small ones are in a hurry to open new long positions yet, although it is not the first time that Bitcoin has been in a flat after a strong fall, which seems to be the perfect time to make important decisions. But no one is in a hurry to buy Bitcoin, so most people are waiting for it to fall.
I myself believe that Bitcoin will continue to fall in the first half of 2023. I don't see any growth factors for the first cryptocurrency right now, but there are plenty of factors to push it to fall. The Federal Reserve and other key central banks will at least raise key rates several more times; more than one bankruptcy may follow in the cryptocurrency industry; the US stock market, which often correlates with the cryptocurrency market, is also falling. We consider these factors as a global fundamental background and, as we can see, it remains negative. From a technical perspective, there are no buy signals. There was only one attempt to settle above the $17,582 - $18,500 area, but it failed.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin quickly completed the formation of an uptrend and settled below the trend line. Therefore, at this time I expect the Bitcoin to fall to the $12,426 mark. It can happen at any time, right now or in a few months. I still don't see any reasons why Bitcoin could show strong growth in the near future.
