Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,966.31, below the 3/8 Murray and below the 21 SMA located at 1,971.
Last week, we could see that gold broke out of the uptrend channel formed since July 6 and is now consolidating. Most likely, there is a rejection below 1,970 and gold could fall and reach the 200 EMA located at about 1,949.
In case gold breaks and consolidates above 1,971, it could mean the resumption of the bullish cycle and the instrument could reach 4/8 Murray around the psychological level of $2,000.
In case gold reaches 1,950 and fails to break through, a strong technical bounce could occur and the metal could reach 1,968 and 1,987 (last high).
The outlook could be negative for gold if the 4-hour chart closes below 1,945. Then, we could expect a bearish acceleration and the price could reach 2/8 Murray at 1,937 and finally could fall towards 1/8 Murray around 1,906.
This week, strong volatility is expected in gold due to the policy announcement of the Federal Reserve. An increase in the official funds rate by 0.25% is the consensus. The rate hike is expected to give a strong upward movement to the dollar index (USDX) and finally, it could exert strong pressure on gold pushing the price towards the $1,900 level.
After the interest rate announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make his comments at the press conference. If the rhetoric is optimistic for the US dollar, we could expect downward pressure on the dollar. However, if Powell refrains from reiterating the need for a new interest rate hike, it could be considered pessimistic. As a consequence, gold could gain strong upward momentum and reach the psychological level of $2,000.
Therefore, in the next few days, a consolidation in gold is expected below 1,971 and above 1,949 where the 21 SMA and the 200 EMA are located as support and resistance.
