The British currency continued to rise even after the UK reported that on a yearly basis, overall retail sales fell 5.8%, following a 5.7% drop in November. Projections were -4.4%. Of course, when this report was released the pound fell slightly, but eventually it steadily grew. And by the way, the pound is still in an uptrend and I believe it is completely absurd. Moreover, the pound jumped by almost 500 points within just a couple of weeks. And we desperately need a correction. However, nothing of the kind is happening. Even despite the negative macro data. It all looks very much like banal speculation, caused by expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon lower rates. Ignoring the fact that the Bank of England has just as much, and even more, reason to do so. So, the speculative growth of the British currency may suddenly be replaced by a rapid decline. And it will be a complete surprise for many market participants. But today, while the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pound will probably rise. Though it will be limited.
Retail Sales (UK):
During the last week, GBPUSD reached a local high of December amid a decline in buying volumes. This caused the pair to retreat towards 1.2300, while the bullish sentiment prevails. This is indicated by the lack of price retention below 1.2300.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is the overbought area. However, it did not cross the 70 line upwards. It still indicates a strong bullish bias.
The Alligator's MAs are headed up on the 4-hour and daily charts, reflecting bullish sentiment in the market.
Outlook
GBP/USD crossed the local high, which once again indicates the prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants. Staying above 1.2450, at least in the four-hour chart, can help keep the uptrend that started from early October 2022.
Until then, the risk of turbulence in the values of 1.2300/1.2450 remains.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term, mid-term and intraday periods, technical indicators signal a strong uptrend.
