Being above the key support levels 1.2990 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), 1.3250 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 1.3345 (144 EMA on the daily chart), USD/CAD remains in the long-term bull market zone.
The focus of market participants today will be the publication of the decision of the Bank of Canada on interest rates at 15:00 GMT and its press conference at 16:00 GMT. These events will become a new driver for the movement of the CAD and the USD/CAD pair. If today's decision of the BoC disappoints market participants by being soft, then there will be a rebound and a resumption of growth in USD/CAD near the current levels and the support level 1.3345.
In this case, the breakdown of the important short-term resistance level 1.3406 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) will be the first signal to resume or increase long positions. The nearest growth target is the resistance at 1.3475 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart and 50 EMA on the daily chart).
In general, the upward dynamics prevails, and a consistent breakout of the resistance levels 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3700 will confirm the main scenario—the growth of USD/CAD towards the highs of last year and the mark of 1.3970.
In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the support at 1.3345 USD/CAD will fall to the supports at 1.3250, 1.3200, from which it will be possible to plan new buy orders.
A breakdown of the 1.2990 support level will aggravate the position of buyers of the pair and increase the risks of its further decline towards the 1.2600 key support level (200 EMA, 144 EMA on the monthly chart), separating the long-term USD/CAD bullish trend from the bearish one.
Support levels: 1.3345, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.2990
Resistance levels: 1.3406, 1.3450, 1.3475, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3320. Stop-Loss 1.3420. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.2990
Buy Stop 1.3420. Stop-Loss 1.3320. Take-Profit 1.3450, 1.3475, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3830, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000
