Early in the American session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,950.52 below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA. We can see that gold is under bearish pressure and is likely to reach 1,945. On July 26, it reached the bottom of the downtrend channel that started a technical bounce.
In the next few hours, gold is expected to continue its decline until it reaches 1,945. From there, it could continue falling to the daily support zone (S_2) and weekly support around 1,940. This area has become a strong support for gold and we could expect a technical rebound to occur in the next few hours. Hence, the price could reach 1,953 as the first target to finally reach 1,965 (top of the downtrend channel).
Since July 17, gold has been trading within a downtrend channel and is expected to fall to the 2/8 Murray at 1,937 in the next few hours. In case gold falls below 1,945, we expect a downward acceleration there to 1,940 and lower to 1,937. Above this last level, a strong technical rebound could occur.
The Eagle indicator reached the extremely oversold zone. Gold is expected to recover and rebound in the next few hours if it reaches the 1,945 to 1,940 area. So, we could use this opportunity to buy with targets at 1,953, 1,958, and 1,965.
In the medium term, a consolidation above 1,970 is expected and the instrument could reach the psychological level of $2,000. Conversely, a fall below 1,937 could entail a bearish reversal and the metal could reach 1,906, the psychological level of 1,900 and from there tumble to 1,863.
Our trading plan is to buy gold at the levels from 1,945 to 1,940 with the target at 1,965. The Eagle indicator is in the oversold area, so a technical bounce is expected which could be seen as a buying opportunity.
