Pound rose to highs for more than a week, but then fell and is currently on its way towards the lows. Most likely, it will continue to decline as forecasts on the UK credit market are pointing to a slowdown. In particular, the number of approved mortgages is expected to amount to 45,000, which is lower than the 46,100 the previous month. The volume of mortgage lending may also reach £4.0 billion, down from £4.4 billion last month.
Mortgage lending is directly related to the real estate market, which is very important for the UK economy. Construction and property transactions account for at least 20% of the economy and carry approximately the same weight as retail sales.
Number of approved mortgages (UK):
As noted above, euro has fallen to lows, but has a higher chance of rebounding earlier than pound. This is because even though the preliminary Q4 GDP data in the eurozone is expected to slowdown from 2.3% to 1.6%, the US year-on-year growth rate is noticeably lower. That would cause a local surge in risk appetite.
GDP (Europe):
For pound, there is a chance to return to highs as soon as the US session starts because ahead is the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England.
EUR/USD is in a sideways trend, trading at 1.0830/1.0930. At the time of writing, it is at the lows of the price channel, but a clear breakdown has not been observed yet. Failure to fall below 1.0830 could lead to a rebound.
GBP/USD is also in a sideways trend, trading at 1.2300/1.2440. A surge in buying pressure could prompt a rebound in the market.
