Analyzing Tuesday's trades:
GBP/USD on 30M chart
GBP/USD also plummeted on Tuesday because of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. There were no other important events during the day. So, the pair finally left the horizontal channel of 1.1924-1.2143, so now the downward movement might resume. We expected that for a long time, but we could not expect that Powell's speech would cause such a strong market reaction. Of course the speeches of the Fed chair are always important and interesting, but not every speech causes at least some reaction. But this time everything was different. Maybe both pairs simply got tired of being in a strange movement and needed a "push" to resume the trend. Anyway, now we can count on the trend movement. After the three-week flat, it is not yet possible to form a trend line or a channel, but this option might be available soon.
GBP/USD on 5M chart
On Tuesday, the movement during most of the day was downward, so, although there were many signals, beginners could open only one position. At the beginning of the European session, the pair rebounded precisely from 1.2065, after which it passed over the levels 1.2008, 1.1992, 1.1924, 1.1877 and 1.1863. And even that was not the end of the decline. Therefore, the only short position should have been closed manually in the evening. It yielded at least 200 points, which was more than enough to compensate for several losing trades of the previous days, as well as leaving a very good profit. Once again beginners could make sure that one can make good money on the trend movement and better avoid the flat.
Trading tips on Wednesday:
On the 30-minute chart, GBP/USD finally broke out of the horizontal channel, so now the downtrend can be fully revived, which we have been expecting for several weeks. There will be some more interesting events this week and it is better to pay attention to them. I think that the market will definitely react to the Nonfarm report on Friday, but other events and reports are also better to pay attention to. On the 5-minute chart, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.1608, 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1793, 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1924, 1.1992-1.2008, 1.2065-1.2079, 1.2143. As soon as the price passes 20 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events are scheduled for Wednesday in the UK. In the US, another speech by Powell, also in Congress, will take place closer to the evening. Also the ADP private sector employment change report, similar to the NonFarm Payrolls, will be published. However, this report is not as important and meaningful as the NonFarm Payrolls.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
