EUR/CHF is in a long-term bearish trend. But the pair seeks to develop an upward trend in the medium term amid a weakening franc. Despite its generally recognized status as a safe-haven currency, the franc is under pressure amid the ongoing uncertainty in the Swiss financial system and ahead of the central bank's meeting.
As of writing, the pair is trading near the 0.9920 mark, strengthening from the local multi-month low of 0.9705, reached last Wednesday amid the Credit Suisse bank crisis. EUR/CHF is rising towards the key resistance levels 0.9940 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 0.9970 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), the breakout of which will mean a break into the medium-term bull market zone.
Alternatively, EUR/CHF remains in the long-term bear market zone, and the breakdown of the short-term support at 0.9860 (200 EMA on the H1 chart) might signal the resumption of the pair's general bearish trend and encourage short positions.
In this case, the pair will head inside the downward channel on the daily chart, towards its lower border, passing below 0.9700.
Only a breakdown of the key long-term resistance levels 1.0330 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 1.0480 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) can bring the EUR/CHF into the long-term bull market zone. Its rise above the resistance levels 1.2000, 1.2025 (200 EMA on the monthly chart) will confirm this assumption.
For now, below the resistance levels 0.9940, 0.9970, short positions are preferable.
Support levels: 0.9905, 0.9895, 0.9860, 0.9800, 0.9700
Resistance levels: 0.9940, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0100, 1.0200, 1.0300, 1.0330, 1.0400, 1.0480
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.9885. Stop-Loss 0.9950. Take-Profit 0.9860, 0.9800, 0.9700, 0.9600
Buy Stop 0.9950. Stop-Loss 0.9885. Take-Profit 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0100, 1.0200, 1.0300, 1.0330, 1.0400, 1.0480
