Dollar remains under pressure due to easing tensions in the US banking sector. Recent data indicated that the ICE dollar index is close to 102.00 points, most likely because investors are returning to stock markets as emergency measures to support the local banking system by the financial authorities have markedly reduced fears of a collapse. The news that First Citizens BancShares agreed to buy out all deposits and loans of the bankrupt Silicon Valley Bank was also received with enthusiasm by investors, resulting to hedgers losing interest to dollar. It also seems that the statements of Fed representatives about the need to continue raising rates, albeit not as aggressively, did not frighten markets. This is probably due to the fact that there is a sustained expectation of an end to rate hikes in the near future despite the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he does not expect any rate cuts for 2023 and that the central bank is even prepared to extend the tightening cycle if necessary.
Considering this extreme uncertainty, dollar obviously has no chance of strong and sustained growth. It will be supported locally if some negative news or bad economic statistics hit the market, but that only shows that dollar is in demand because of interest from hedgers.
In the case of monetary policies, tightening in the US is coming to an end, while in other countries, such as the UK, it is in full swing. The reason is still the persistently high inflation.
As for the outlook of the ICE Dollar Index, it is likely that a fall to 100.00 points will be seen in early April.
Forecasts for today:
AUD/USD
The pair fell below 0.6700 after data indicated that consumer inflation dropped to 6.8%. The forecast was 7.1%, while the previous reading was 7.4%. There is a high chance that the pair will hit 0.6630.
USD/CAD
The pair is trading above 1.3600. If positive market sentiment persists and crude oil prices continue to rise, the pair will fall to 1.3525.
