Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
On Tuesday, no significant macroeconomic reports are planned in either the European Union or the United States. Among the secondary reports, you can take note of the new home sales for March in the US, but this report may trigger a reaction of 20-30 points at most. And even that would be in a very favorable scenario. Thus, volatility on Tuesday may be low unless traders receive any data that is not even listed in the calendar. For example, there could have been a speech by a high-ranking official from the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve.
Fundamental events:
There are no fundamental events to highlight on Tuesday either. Of course, we may receive interesting information during the day, since speeches may not be informed beforehand, but the chances of that are slim. In any case, it is impossible to predict in advance where and when a politician or central bank official will speak.
General conclusions:
Tuesday promises to be an absolutely boring day, as there are simply no events of interest. I believe that there is a 90% probability that we will see a low-volatility flat, or the euro will continue to edge up. However, as on Monday, there is still a 10% chance of various unforeseen events and circumstances.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
