Analyzing Tuesday's trades:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
The EUR/USD pair tried to continue its downward movement on Tuesday, according to the new trend, but it did not turn out very well. Overall, the pair has been falling for four straight days, but the entire decline does not exceed 150 points. There is a descending channel, but it is quite narrow and weak. Any slightly strong movement will break it very quickly. Thus, from a technical perspective, the downward movement on the 30-minute chart is questionable. Especially with the number of various fundamental and macroeconomic events scheduled for this week. Take note that the beginning of the new week turned out to be quite modest in terms of volatility. On Tuesday, for example, the pair only passed 65 points from the low to the peak, and there was enough macro data to use. And in the second half of the day, traders could not maintain the sentiment. In the first half of the day, the report on retail sales in Germany was disappointing, and traders ignored the EU inflation report, as its value practically coincided with the forecast.
EUR/USD on 5M chart
On the 5-minute chart, it is clear that Tuesday's movement fits perfectly into the "flat" classification. All signals were formed around the 1.0965-1.0980 area, and all of them turned out to be false. Therefore, beginners could only try the first two. First, the pair bounced off the specified area, and then settled below it. In the first case, a long position should have been opened, and in the second - a short one. In the first case, the pair barely went up 15 points, which was enough to set a Stop Loss at breakeven, in the second case, it didn't so there was a loss of 30 points.
Trading tips on Wednesday:
On the 30-minute chart, the pair is trying to form a downtrend, but frankly, it isn't working out well so far. I have already reiterated that the upward movement had no basis, and I still hold the same opinion. However, now the pair is neither rising nor falling, the movements are absolutely illogical, random. The pair may stand still for a week, and then show "swings" with an empty fundamental and macroeconomic background. On the 5-minute chart, consider levels 1.0792, 1.0857-1.0867, 1.0920-1.0933, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1038, 1.1070, 1.1132, 1.1184, and 1.1228. As soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Wednesday, the European Union plans to publish its unemployment report. In the US, we have the ADP and ISM reports for the service sector to look forward to, and in the evening - the announcement of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. There will be many important events.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
