Bloomberg's forecast for the month of May said gold will outperform other commodities this year, including silver, platinum, and palladium. This is due to rising recession risks in the US.
Most likely, the yellow metal will accelerate its rally during the latter half of the year, increasing the gold-to-silver ratio, which is currently around 80. In March 2020, the ratio peaked at about 124.
Gold has always outpaced silver since 1717, when Isaac Newton, as the Master of the Royal Mint, adopted the gold standard. Therefore, it is not surprising that as the US enters a recession, the ratio approaches the historical high, with 80 acting as the lower limit.
Of course, silver will have a chance to catch up at the end of the recession, when the electrification trends take effect.
Gold also outperforms platinum and palladium during a recession. For the latter, the ratio usually hits its highest level whenever there is financial crisis.
The forecast said the situation for both metals will be similar to that of 2008-2009. Relatively high palladium prices compared to platinum may make palladium the prime contender for the top spot in the event of an economic crisis.
Gold indicators have been encouraging over the past 12 months, showing an increase of around 9%. And in comparison to commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index for the same period has decreased by approximately 24%. The report also said that as the Federal Reserve is grappling with the consequences of its most aggressive tightening in recent decades, the forecast for gold remains bullish.
