Analyzing Friday's trades:
GBP/USD on 30M chart
The GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement on Friday. Take note that the pound has been depreciating for only three days, so unfortunately, we can't say that a new downtrend has started in the medium term. However, at some point it has to start, so why not now? Recall that the pound, like the euro, has been growing for more than two months, hardly correcting during this time. We have repeatedly pointed out the fact that even with fundamental and macroeconomic support, the pair should correct from time to time. And the British currency did not have general support. The British economy remains weak, GDP is hardly growing, inflation is skyrocketing, macroeconomic indicators are quite mediocre. Meanwhile, in the US, macro data have been consistently stronger. So now the pair should continue to fall based on both fundamental factors and technical ones.
The new trend line supports those trading lower and now there could be a situation where the dollar will grow regardless of fundamentals and macroeconomics. For example, on Friday, British data turned out to be quite good relative to forecasts, but the pound was able to show only a very weak growth in the morning. And the US report was the only one that turned out to be a disappointment, which did not knock the dollar off the path of growth.
GBP/USD on 5M chart
The trading signals on the 5-minute chart weren't the best due to trading during the European session when the pair was blatantly moving sideways. It was during this time that three buy signals were formed in the form of rebounds from the 1.2507-1.2520 area. In the first, second, or third case, the pair was not able to pass even 20 points in the right direction. Therefore, the only open long position eventually closed at a loss on the first sell signal. However, beginners could open a short position using the same signal, which eventually allowed them to earn about 40 points, offsetting the loss on the first trade.
Trading tips on Monday:
On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair has finally started to fall, but we don't know how long this will last. I still expect the pound to fall by several hundred points, at least. At least for the market to consolidate. Then it will be necessary to reassess the fundamental background, as all three central banks are close to completing the cycle of tightening monetary policy. On the 5-minute chart, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2351-1.2367, 1.2434, 1.2507-1.2520, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. As soon as the price passes 20 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Monday, no important publications are planned in the UK and the US. There will be nothing for traders to react to during the day, so they will only be able to rely on the technique.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
