Analysis of macro data:
There will be no macro data on Tuesday. Typically, we pay attention to important reports and leave out data of secondary importance (unless they can trigger a reaction if results significantly deviate from forecasts). But on Tuesday, there won't even be any secondary data. Only minor ones, such as the consumer confidence index in the European Union or the housing price index in the United States. Such reports are hardly interesting, so we expect another day with low volatility and a complete lack of trend-driven movement.
Fundamental events:
There are hardly any fundamental events as well. No speeches, not even secondary ones. Perhaps there will be new information on the US Congress regarding its vote on a bill to raise the debt ceiling, which was agreed upon by Biden and McCarthy over the weekend. However, this information is unlikely to be of significant importance to the market. The main thing is that the debt ceiling will be raised; the rest are just details.
General conclusions:
No fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. We can only rely on unexpected information, but how can we count on that? Most likely, we can expect another boring day with low movements and volatility.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
