Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
There will be no macro data scheduled for release on Monday. No secondary reports in the United States, the European Union, or the United Kingdom either. Therefore, throughout the day, traders will have nothing to focus their attention on. The euro continues to be in a sideways channel or, rather, in a limited price range. The bounce from the level of 1.0792 was very imprecise but triggered the start of a new downward spiral that may continue next week. Unlike the current week, the following week will have a sufficient number of important events, making it very difficult to predict the movement in advance, and the sideways channel can easily be broken. At the same time, the pound continues its unwarranted upward movement.
Analysis of fundamental events:
There are no notable fundamental events on Monday as the calendar is completely empty. Looking ahead, it is crucial to consider that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have upcoming interest rate decisions, scheduled one day apart. An important inflation report will also be published in the US on Tuesday. Additionally, Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde will be giving speeches during the week, so only Monday may be dull and uneventful. The remaining days should be much better.
General conclusions:
No significant fundamental events are scheduled for Monday, so we expect low volatility and weak intraday movements. It is possible that the market will start anticipating the outcomes of the upcoming ECB and Fed meetings, but we believe Monday will be very dull. There is a higher likelihood of seeing movement in the second half of the day, with the opening of the US trading session.
Basic trading rules:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
