Analyzing Monday's trades:
GBP/USD on 30M chart
The GBP/USD pair experienced a significant drop on Monday, which was not triggered by any specific fundamental or macroeconomic background. The pound simply fell out of the blue, although it does not come as a surprise given the current volatility (visible on higher charts). The pound continues to trade randomly and illogically. There's a big chance that we might witness illogical movements again on Tuesday due to strong news from the UK and the US. However, at the moment, the pair has fallen to an ascending trendline. If it bounces off it, the uptrend will persist. If it breaches the trendline, the pound may continue to fall. Overall, we expect a new significant drop in the British currency, but the market is currently going against our expectations. The situation may change this week as there will be many important events.
GBP/USD on 5M chart
Three trading signals materialized on the 5-minute chart, but in fact, only one was valid. In the middle of the European trading session, the pair accurately bounced off the level of 1.2597, which was a sell signal. Naturally, novice traders should have opened short positions at that moment. Subsequently, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2538 and broke through it, reaching the level of 1.2499 and surpassing it. Therefore, short positions should have been manually closed closer to the evening (no buy signals were formed). The profit from the single open trade amounted to around 90 pips.
Trading tips on Tuesday:
As seen on the 30M chart, the GBP/USD pair ended the downtrend and started a new uptrend in the short-term. For now, the upward movement is not particularly strong, but the pound is still rising while, for example, the euro is barely moving. The rationale behind the pound's growth raises many questions. We believe that the pound has not fallen enough to form a new strong uptrend, so we're waiting for it to fall. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2171-1.2179, 1.2245, 1.2307, 1.2372, 1.2457, 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2597-1.2616, 1.2659, 1.2697. When the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, a stop loss can be set at breakeven. In the UK, important reports on unemployment levels and unemployment claims are scheduled for Tuesday, deviations from which can trigger a strong market reaction. The same applies to the inflation report in the US.
Basic trading rules:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.
Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
