The US 10-year bond yield peaked at 5% and has since seen a reversal that calls for more corrective downside pressure in the months ahead. That said, we will likely see a temporary rally back to 4.75 - 4.85% in the days/weeks ahead, before the next push lower towards 4.06%. Ultimately, we should look for a decline towards the 38.2% corrective target near 3.25%.
The decline in the US bond yields will secure the stock market X-mas rally, but the risk of a larger decline in the stock market as we enter 2024 will grow, as the decline in bond yields indicates a flagging economy in the US. The risk of the US entering a recession during 2024 is high.
