Despite an abundance of various negative and worrisome factors, Bitcoin bulls managed to successfully conclude the previous trading week. The asset's price recovered above the $26k mark at a time when it seemed that BTC would permanently disrupt the structure of the upward trend.
The confident upward movement at the end of last week gives investors hope for a similar price increase at the end of the new trading session. However, it is not advisable to evaluate the local growth of BTC as a reversal of the medium-term trend. There are numerous factors indicating that the bearish trend of the asset is not yet over.
Fundamental Factors
Last week saw two positive events in the global financial arena: a higher-than-expected decrease in inflation in the United States and a pause in raising the key interest rate. Despite all the positivity, the Federal Reserve's statements about a possible resumption of rate hikes are forcing investors to factor in this possibility as early as July.
The current trading week will also be important in terms of economic events. The next couple of days are expected to be calm in the cryptocurrency market due to the U.S. banking holiday and a national celebration. However, later on, the publication of U.S. unemployment data, Powell's speech, and SEC oversight hearings are expected.
Regarding the latter, it is worth noting that the likely reason for the green cryptocurrency market over the weekend was an agreement between the SEC and Binance.US, which secures the largest market for the exchange. The CEO of Tether also noted that the company has fulfilled all reporting requirements to the New York Attorney General's office.
These news items have become an important underlying factor in the emotional confidence of investors in the crypto market. The local saga of good news ended with the appearance of an additional $250 million USDT in the market. It is evident that a portion of these funds ended up in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
BTC/USD Analysis
Bitcoin resumed its upward movement last Thursday but failed to absorb the bearish volumes from Wednesday. At that time, it seemed that this would inevitably lead to a retest of $25k, but instead, we saw growing buying volumes. As a result, BTC settled above $26k and continues to hold this level, opening the way for further growth.
Trading volumes as of 08:00 UTC dropped again to $10 billion, indicating a decrease in volatility to local lows. Despite this, the key task for the bulls is to consolidate above $26.8k in order to recover within the consolidation range of $26.6k-$27.5k.
Subsequently, this will allow Bitcoin to continue its upward movement towards $28k. However, as of June 19, the $26.8k level remains untouched, and the current trading volumes are insufficient for its definitive breakout. Technical indicators indicate that BTC has paused its upward movement.
Despite this, a "bullish crossover" is forming on the stochastic oscillator and MACD. This suggests an attempt to form a medium-term upward trend. However, without significant growth in trading volumes, it will not be possible to realize this impulse.
It is also worth not discounting the bears, who may take advantage of the volatility in the second half of the week to achieve their targets. Their primary task is to definitively break the $25.5k-$26k level. This will allow them to return to their main objective, which is to breach the $24.6k-$25k area.
Conclusion
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a parity between bulls and bears, characterized by a phased and inconclusive price movement. With the current trading volumes, there is no basis to believe that either side will be able to seize the initiative and radically change the situation. As a result, we observe a consolidating movement and rare impulsive movements within the wide range of $24.6k-$26.8k.
