Global markets continue to show mixed dynamics, remaining heavily influenced by uncertainty, which prevents it from either collapsing or soaring to new heights.
Generated by the military conflict in Ukraine, this increased risks of uncertainty, together with the extremely challenging economic situation in Europe, turmoil and wavering of American elites, and the ambiguous stance of many global central banks, essentially resulted in a turbulent market.
In the forex market, dollar demonstrates a stable sideways trend along with government bond yields. Commodity and raw material assets, meanwhile, became stuck in very narrow price ranges, from which they could not break free for the past six months.
Although the topic of interest rates already exhausts market players, it still needs to be monitored as the moves of the Fed significantly influence the actions of other central banks. And even though China managed to stay afloat and lower its rates for now, this cannot alter the overall picture of despondency and concern that slowly but surely spreads across the markets.
High inflation drives the rise in interest rates, which monetary authorities in Europe and the US initially encouraged, aiming to push it up to 2.0%. Then, they plan to solve problems with unbacked money. However, in the past year, inflation in the US noticeably declined, standing at 4.0% y/y. This compelled the Fed, specifically Jerome Powell, to make firm statements that the key interest rate may be raised twice more in the current year.
Of course, the Fed does not want to raise rates very much so as to maintain the balance of the economy on the brink of a recession. This means that a continued decrease in inflation will lead to rates not rising in July, which may carry on in the long run if such a situation persists.
The Fed may continue to talk about the possibility of rate hikes until the end of summer without actually raising them, which will be the cause of maintaining the overall dynamics. Other global central banks, except perhaps the Bank of England, may try to follow the Fed and replicate its actions in monetary policy, striving to maintain a balance in interest rates and the overall state of their local economies.
Forecasts for today:
USD/CAD
The pair fell below the support level of 1.3140. If it remains under this level and crude oil prices rise amid a general wave of optimism in the stock markets, a decline towards 1.3035 will occur.
EUR/USD
The pair currently trades at the resistance level of 1.0940. A breakdown will result in a further growth towards 1.1000.
