OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo said crude oil demand will reach 110 million barrels per day by 2045, representing a 23% increase from the current level. This forecast followed the International Energy Agency's (IEA) own prediction of a slowdown in oil demand growth in the coming years.
The bearish IEA forecast came from the belief that the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles and new technologies would hamper demand growth. While OPEC agrees that Asia, particularly China and India, will drive global oil demand, a recent report by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) suggested that this growth could be undermined by electric vehicles.
However, the increase in car sales remains uncertain as Beijing extended tax incentives for electric vehicle buyers recently in order to stimulate declining sales. The CNPC said the total tax savings for buyers could amount to $72 billion.
The IEA also noted that sustained growth in electric vehicle sales would depend on the availability and affordability of charging infrastructure, whether through private charging at home or work, or through public charging stations. Furthermore, most analysts in the petrochemical industry believe that even if electric vehicles begin to erode fuel demand, the medium-term outlook for oil demand will remain high.
