EUR/USD
On Friday, counter-dollar currencies, which were already set to decline, were boosted by the growth in related markets: S&P 500 by 1.23%, oil by 0.93%, and copper by 1.62%. However, government bond yields did not increase. Today is a shortened pre-holiday day in the US, and tomorrow is a full holiday, so we will witness major events on Wednesday.
Today, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM) for June will be released with a forecast of 47.2, compared to 46.9 in May. Tomorrow, Germany may report a decreased trade surplus in the May assessment, so a breakthrough of the euro's target range of 1.0910/30, which was already tested on Friday, appears less likely than its decline. A decline would mean going back to falling towards the target of 1.0789-1.0804. If the price consolidates above 1.0930, it will open up the target of 1.0990, which is the upper band of the descending price channel (green). The Marlin oscillator is not showing a bullish bias.
On the four-hour chart, on Friday, the price did not firmly establish itself above the balance indicator line, indicating a corrective nature of the growth. The MACD line has also turned downwards. The development of the Marlin oscillator along the zero line suggests a possible sideways movement today.
