The market hardly reacts to final data on PMIs as they mostly coincide with preliminary estimates. Any significant trading movements usually occur during the release of the preliminary estimates. By the time the final data is published, the market has already taken these indicators into account. Furthermore, the preliminary estimates are released simultaneously for all indexes, while the final data is released at different times. For example, today, only the manufacturing PMIs are slated for release, which have the lowest value among all business activity indexes.
In other words, even if today's data differs from the preliminary estimates, which is possible, the market response will be relatively moderate, and so we shouldn't expect any significant movements. The preliminary estimate of the UK manufacturing PMI already revealed a decline from 47.1 points to 46.2 points. The US PMI also fell from 48.4 points to 46.3 points. Therefore, the preliminary estimate already indicated a noticeable decline in the state of the industry.
The GBP/USD pair has slowed down its downward cycle around the 1.2600 level, where a reversal occurred amid the weakening of the dollar positions. As a result, the price returned above the 1.2700 level.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicated the possibility of a price reversal when reaching oversold territory.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs reversed, indicating a slowdown in the downward cycle.
Outlook
In order to raise the volume of long positions, the quote needs to stay above the 1.2750 level. In this case, there may be a subsequent stage of recovery in the value of the British pound relative to the recent corrective move.
As for a subsequent downward move, falling below the 1.0650 level could easily reignite short positions. This will result in updating the local low of the corrective cycle.
The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a bearish bias from the 1.2700 level. In the intraday period, there is a primary signal of the end of the corrective phase. In the mid-term, the indicators are pointing to an uptrend.
