Early in the American session, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 148.43, above 21 SMA, and below the 200 EMA. On the H1 chart, we can see that the Japanese yen has encountered strong resistance around the 2/8 Murray and around the 200 EMA. Since November 28th, we see a downtrend channel. The instrument has tried to break on several occasions but has been unsuccessful.
Because USD/JPY is following a downtrend, in case it tries to surpass 148.43 in the next hours and fails to break it, this will be seen as a signal to sell and the price could fall towards 1/8 Murray at 147.75 and could even reach 0/8 Murray at 146.87.
On the other hand, in case the Japanese yen breaks above 148.50 and consolidates above this zone, we could expect a resumption of the bullish cycle and the Japanese yen could reach 3/8 Murray at 149.21 and even reach the psychological level of 150.00.
Since November 30, the JPY has been showing overbought levels. Therefore, a failed attempt to break 2/8 Murray could be seen as a signal to sell with the target at 146.87.
Our trading plan for the next hours is to sell below 148.43 with targets at 148.07, 147.65, and 146.87. The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal which supports our bearish strategy.
The market sentiment report shows that there are 24.95% of traders who are buying in USD/JPY and 75.05% who are selling. This could mean a bullish signal and in the short term, the Japanese yen could reach 150.00. But given the overbought conditions, we could expect a technical correction in the next few days and then we could resume buying.
