A new increase in volatility in Canadian dollar quotes and the USD/CAD pair is expected today at 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT): at this time, the U.S. Bureau of Statistics will publish data on inflation in the U.S. (consumer prices account for a large part of overall inflation), and the Bank of Canada will publish its interest rate decision.
At the June meeting of the Federal Reserve, the interest rate was kept at the current level of 5.25%, and the USD/CAD remained under bearish pressure, continuing to decline in the medium-term bear market area, below the key level of 1.3380 (200 EMA on the daily chart). At the moment, the price has reached 1.3220. In case of further decline and a break of the key support level 1.3080 (200 EMA and the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart), one can speak about the transition of USD/CAD to the long-term bear market zone.
A signal for new sales is the break below the local and intraday low of 1.3200.
In an alternative scenario, and after breaking through the important short-term resistance level of 1.3262 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), USD/CAD will resume growth towards the key medium-term resistance levels of 1.3345 (50 EMA on the daily chart), 1.3380, 1.3410 (144 EMA on the daily chart). A breakout of the resistance level of 1.3450 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level in the previous growth wave from the level 0.9700 to the level 1.4600, reached in January 2016) will once again bring USD/CAD into the medium-term bull market area and resume the positive dynamics of the pair within the framework of long-term and global bull markets.
Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3100, 1.3080, 1.3000, 1.2740, 1.2650
Resistance levels: 1.3262, 1.3315, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3410, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3700, 1.3810, 1.3860, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000
