The latest forecast by Commerzbank states that gold prices could rise to $2,000 per ounce by the end of the year as concerns about a recession begin to intensify. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research at the German bank, believes that prices will return to $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year, although she has lowered her forecast for the third quarter. In their latest research report, she noted that in the short-term perspective, the hawkish monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains the dominant force.
Previously, Commerzbank economists speculated that the Federal Reserve would not only conclude its rate-hiking cycle in May but also maintain the prospect of its first rate cut closer to the end of the year, which would give gold a significant boost. June forecasts indicated that the Fed would raise interest rates at least twice, with one of the increases of 25 basis points occurring at the end of the current month.
According to Nguyen, gold will remain stuck at current prices in the next three months but will end the year on a strong note. The precious metal is seen as a non-yielding attractive investment in the world's largest capital market, with the United States being the most important driver of prices. Commerzbank economists said the July rate hike could be the last in this tightening cycle by the central bank.
Commerzbank believes that even if further inflation decline and economic weakness make rate cuts more likely next year, gold should reach its historical peak.
