Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 19, 2023: A Closer Look at the Market Dynamics
The Rising Tide of Bitcoin: A Shift in Trend
Cryptocurrency Industry Update: The investment world is closely watching the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Their decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could significantly impact the market. Analyst Nate Geraci predicts a major pullback if the ETF is not approved. Despite this, he remains optimistic about the approval chances. Recently, Bitcoin's price soared to $45,000, showing market optimism. However, a decline is likely if the ETF is not approved.
Analysts see potential in the Bitcoin ETF market, likening it to early 21st-century gold ETFs. But, SEC's decision remains a crucial factor for the industry's future.
Potential Impact on Stock Markets
BTC Market Predictions: Some experts believe the SEC's decision could affect cryptocurrency exchanges negatively. Predictions suggest that a spot BTC ETF, coupled with Bitcoin's halving in April, could propel BTC's value to $100,000 or even $1 million. However, these developments might reduce turnover for centralized cryptocurrency exchanges.
Retail Market Shifts: Analyst Eric Balchunas highlights the low fee of 0.01% for Bitcoin ETF trading. This could lead to increased competition in the cryptocurrency market. Retail Bitcoin trading is mostly outside the U.S., so the impact of an American ETF might be limited.
Technical Outlook and Trading Suggestions
Current Market Status: The BTC/USD pair has broken back above the trend line resistance and made a local high at the level of $43,470. This level is just below the intraday technical resistance located at $43,515, so any breakout above this level would put the last swing high in view. The intraday technical support is seen at $42,381
The next target for bulls is the level of $48,200, which is the weekly high from 28 March 2022. The key short-term demand zone the H4 time frame chart is located between the levels of $38,477 - $38,029, so only a sustained breakout below this zone would change the short-term outlook to more bearish.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support Zone: $38,477 - $38,029 on the H4 chart.
- Pivot Points: WR3 - $42,296; WR2 - $41,640; WR1 - $41,121; Weekly Pivot - $40,983; WS1 - $40,557; WS2 - $40,382; WS3 - $39,673.
- Bullish Target: $48,200, maintaining a long-term uptrend.
Indicator Signals:
- Buy Signals: 11 out of 21 technical indicators; 12 out of 18 moving averages.
- Sell Signals: 4 technical indicators; 6 moving averages.
Practical Trading Insights:
The recent breakout suggests an uptrend resumption. For sustained bullish momentum, the critical support level of $19,572 should hold. Investors should watch for potential trend reversals at the identified pivot points. The sentiment remains predominantly bullish, reflecting market optimism.
Useful Links
Important Reminder
The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.
Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.
