Bitcoin has again rebounded from the $31,000 level and is experiencing a more significant decline. Our recent articles emphasized that the crucial focus is no longer on the $31,000 level but on the sideways channel in the 4-hour timeframe. The cryptocurrency has positioned itself below this channel, indicating a new decline phase rather than growth.
The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled today, and there is almost a 100% probability that the key rate will be raised by 0.25% to 5.5%. It's important to note that tightening monetary policy is negative news for all risky assets, including Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin has been on the rise for almost an entire year. It started its upward movement from the $15,500 level and has now doubled in value. This growth is not aligned with the expectations of most "crypto experts." Nevertheless, Bitcoin has mostly risen during periods when the Federal Reserve raised its interest rates. This suggests that Bitcoin had already factored in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening when it was moving towards $15,500 rather than reacting to the rate increase from that level. Consequently, there is no reason to anticipate a decline in the world's leading cryptocurrency as a response to the rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
Entirely different factors influence Bitcoin's movements, primarily the actions of major players in the market. Typically, the "whales" lead and the smaller investors follow suit. The problem is that "whales" can afford to hold Bitcoin in their portfolios for extended periods, even years, while smaller investors usually seek short-term profits and are unwilling to wait for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 or more for several years. Therefore, the initial stage of any trend is contingent on the actions of these "whales." In simpler terms, the longer Bitcoin's price stagnates, the more small investors and traders become disheartened with this asset and begin exploring alternative investment opportunities for their smaller sums.
As such, the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could propel the cryptocurrency's value upwards. However, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve these applications. Second, there needs to be clearer knowledge about how many more significant investors are ready to invest in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency will drop to around $26,000 soon.
On the 24-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has once again rebounded the $31,000 level and is experiencing a more pronounced downward trend. As mentioned earlier, the minimum target for the decline is the ascending trendline, currently situated around the $26,500 level. This target is appropriate for selling the cryptocurrency, given that any upward growth is postponed. If the trendline is breached, it is reasonable to expect an absence of an upward trend for at least another year. Presently, there are no signals indicating a buying opportunity.
