After the RBA meeting last Tuesday, AUD/USD has been showing a downward trend, delving into the long-term bearish market zone located below key resistance levels of 0.6950 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA on the monthly chart, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.9500 to 0.5510).
In our previous review, we assumed that if the support level of 0.6755 is broken, it would be logical to expect the pair's further decline within the long-term bearish trend. As we see, events are currently unfolding precisely according to this primary scenario.
The nearest downward targets are the local "round" support level of 0.6500 and the support level of 0.6455 (23.6% Fibonacci level), while more distant targets include local support levels at 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170 (2022 lows and the lower boundary of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
In an alternative scenario, breaking through the local resistance level of 0.6600 and the important short-term resistance level of 0.6611 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) could signal the resumption of long positions. In this case, breaking the resistance level of 0.6555 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart) would be the first and "quick" signal to implement the AUD/USD growth scenario.
Medium-term growth targets are key resistance levels of 0.6710 (144 EMA on the daily chart) and 0.6735 (200 EMA on the daily chart). However, only by breaking the key resistance levels of 0.7000 and 0.7040 will AUD/USD enter the long-term bullish market zone.
Thus, in the current situation, short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170
Resistance Levels: 0.6555, 0.6600, 0.6611, 0.6682, 0.6710, 0.6735, 0.6770, 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7040.
