GBP/USD
Yesterday's trading range amounted to 150 pips. The upper limit was defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while the price was supported from below by the target level of 1.2666. The UK GDP report will be released today. Forecasts for the second quarter are for the GDP rate to remain unchanged (0.2% YoY). Growth for June is expected at 0.2%, which, after the 0.1% decline in May, could significantly alleviate recession concerns. Industrial production volume for June might also show no growth, which, considering the 0.6% contraction in May, is relatively positive. The trade balance could show that the negative balance has fallen.
Hence, the pound could rise towards 1.2720, breaking resistance and consolidating above the MACD line at 1.2770. Disappointing data and price consolidation below 1.2666 could open the door to the nearest target at 1.2590. Subsequently, it could fall to 1.2515.
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines, and Marlin is in a downtrend zone. Right now, the key level is the resistance level at 1.2720, as it is supported by the MACD line. It's crucial for the price to settle above this level, or else we might see a reverse reaction next.
