Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,025.38 and above the 21 SMA 2,020.73. Gold is retreating after having reached the 5/8 Murray zone during the European session. As it did not manage to overcome and consolidate at that level, the metal is now trading at the EMA 200 which acts as a strong resistance.
In the next few hours, we expect gold to continue consolidating above 2,020. If this scenario comes true, we could expect gold to try again to break the 2,029 barrier. Finally, the XAU could reach the top of the downtrend channel forming since December 26 at 2,045. If the bullish force prevails it could reach 6/8 Murray at 2,062.
In case gold breaks below 2,020 and consolidates below 2,018, we could expect a strong bearish acceleration and gold could reach the psychological level of $2,000 and even the one-month support of 1,992.
In the H4 chart, we can see the formation of a pennant pattern. This pattern could be confirmed only if gold breaks and consolidates above 2,031. The target of this pattern could be at 6/8 Murray around 2,062.
As the eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal since January 9, any pullback and if it trades above 2,020, will be seen as an opportunity to buy. In case gold falls below this area, we should avoid buying or taking our losses because the bearish cycle could resume.
