The euro is trading around 1.081, below the 200 EMA ,and inside the downtrend channel formed since January 10. On the H4 chart, we can see that EUR/USD remains in positive territory but could encounter strong resistance at 1.0890 (200 EMA) and the top of the bearish channel.
Yesterday, gold reached the low of 1.0780, the level coinciding with the bottom of the downtrend channel. From that point, EUR/USD gave a strong boost and reached a high of 1.0896. The pair now remains above the 21 SMA located at 1.0840 which gives it a positive outlook for the coming days.
In the next few hours, the US nonfarm payrolls will be published. If the data is favorable for the US labor market, we could see a sharp fall in the euro and it could return to levels of 1.0839 and could even reach the key level of 1.0803 (1/8 Murray).
In case the data is discouraging for US employment, we could expect the euro to break sharply from the downtrend channel and it could consolidate above 1.0900. Then, EUR/USD could gain bullish momentum and reach 3/8 Murray at 1.0925 and finally, around 4/8 Murray at 1.0986 near the psychological level of 1.10.
Technically, we see that the euro is showing signs of exhaustion and we could expect a technical correction in the coming days. Therefore, there is strong bearish pressure below 1.0890. The bullish cycle could resume above 1.0900.
