EUR Makes a New Weekly Low, Shallow Bounce After German Data
Key Takeaways:
- German data positively surprises, offering a glimmer of economic optimism.
- Technical indicators largely suggest a bearish trend for EUR/USD.
- Market sentiment is mixed, leaning towards bullishness in the short term.
Morning Brief: Positive Surprise in German Factory Orders
German Factory Orders for December surprised market participants, registering an 8.9% month-over-month increase, against an expected -0.1% and a previous 0.0%. This revision from 0.3% may indicate a potential exit from recessionary conditions in Germany, positively impacting industrial production in upcoming months.
Technical Market Outlook: Limited Upside for EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair hit a new weekly low of 1.0724, right before the release of the German Factory Orders data. Post-release, the pair experienced a slight bounce. However, upside remains limited due to technical resistance at 1.0768 and internal trend line resistance around 1.0765. The momentum is weak and negative, suggesting a bearish outlook with a potential target for bears at 1.0696.
H4 Time Frame Technical Insights: Bearish Signals Dominate
- Bearish Engulfing Patterns suggest potential bearish reversals.
- Shooting Star indicates possible price reversal, with sellers overpowering buyers.
- Hammers signal bullish reversals after price declines.
- Moving Averages (EMA and DEMA) are trending downward, indicating bearish momentum.
- RSI stands at 38.72, near the oversold region but not conclusively so.
EUR/USD H1 Intraday Indicator Analysis: Predominantly Bearish
- 13 out of 22 technical indicators signal Sell; 4 signal Buy; 5 are Neutral.
- 11 out of 18 moving averages signal Sell; 7 signal Buy.
Sentiment Scoreboard: Mixed Market Sentiment
General sentiment is bullish (56% bulls vs. 44% bears). Last week's sentiment remained bullish (55% bulls vs. 45% bears), while the past three days show a neutral sentiment (56% bulls vs. 44% bears).
Weekly Pivot Points:
- WR3: 1.08147
- WR2: 1.07958
- WR1: 1.07870
- Weekly Pivot: 1.07769
- WS1: 1.07681
- WS2: 1.07580
- WS3: 1.07391
Bullish Scenario: Signs of a Bullish Reversal
- Price movement above moving averages and an upward trending RSI could signal bullish momentum.
- Hammers at support levels, followed by bullish patterns, might suggest a rebound.
- Breaking above a recent high or resistance level could indicate a downtrend reversal.
Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Bearish Trend
- Persistent lower lows below moving averages suggest bearish momentum.
- A drop below a hammer low could negate potential bullish reversal signals.
- RSI moving towards oversold territory without price confirmation maintains the bearish outlook.
Key Takeaways:
- German data positively surprises, offering a glimmer of economic optimism.
- Technical indicators largely suggest a bearish trend for EUR/USD.
- Market sentiment is mixed, leaning towards bullishness in the short term.
Conclusion:
For bulls, watch for signals of bullish momentum like RSI trends and candlestick patterns above moving averages. For bears, monitor continued bearish trends and potential breakdowns below key levels.
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Important Notice
The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.
Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.
