Gold during Bernanke's speech was spiking. Our stop was hit and our short position was protected against the rising volatility. Prices reached 1,370 breaking out of the downward sloping channel and reaching the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement. The upward thrust looks like an impulsive wave and we now expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.
The decline from 1,433 is not a clear impulsive (complete 5 wave move) and that is why our first choice is to label it as a corrective wave. Taking into consideration that the move from 1,180 to 1,433 is also a three wave upward move, we can now say that we are in a larger degree corrective pattern, where wave A (1,180-1,433) and wave B (1,433-1,291) are over. We have most probably started an upward wave C now. This wave count will hold as long as prices stay above 1,291. Currently, prices made 5 waves up from 1,291 and we expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.
In the daily chart we observe that prices are back testing the broken trendline. The trend is now changing to upward one and is expected to move towards 1,500 as long as prices stay above 1,291. Confirmation will come if prices break above 1,433. Concluding, we remain neutral to bullish, waiting for a pull back to enter long wit 1,291 as stop.
