The EUR/USD pair retested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0744 on Thursday. A bounce from this level and a downside reversal favored the US dollar. A potential decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.0637 is expected. Consolidation above the 1.0744 level would benefit the euro, indicating a potential move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0810.
The wave patterns continuously signal a bearish trend. The latest ascending wave failed to approach the previous high, while the last descending wave confidently broke through the previous wave's low. Currently, there are no signs of the bearish trend coming to an end. Such signs would only emerge if the pair establishes itself above the 1.0744 level today. In this scenario, the euro can expect a slight increase.
Yesterday, the European Union released its GDP report for the second quarter. The third estimation disappointed traders as the growth was only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Previously, it was anticipated that the European economy would grow by 0.3%, but this forecast didn't come true. This report didn't provide any optimism for bullish traders, leading to the euro's continued decline for the majority of the day.
Today's economic news will be even less impactful. A final estimation of German inflation is due to be out today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) might decelerate to 6.1%, which is three times above the target level. The ECB might keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. A fading hawkish stance is unlikely to further slow inflation. I believe that bear traders will continue to dominate the market today. If a correction occurs, the decline might resume next week.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has settled above the downward trend channel and then resumed its decline. While this is a somewhat unusual move, breaking through two levels on the way down and surpassing the recent low clearly points to a bearish trend. Thus, a further decline towards the next Fibonacci retracement level of 100.0% at 1.0639 is anticipated. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
In the recent reporting week, speculators closed 8,849 long contracts and opened 3,232 short contracts. The sentiment of major market players remains bullish and is not changing too fast. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 230,000, while short contracts are at 83,000. I believe that the situation will continue to shift in the opposite direction over time, but for now, bearish traders are not too assertive against the bulls. The high number of open long contracts suggests that professional traders might close their positions soon, given the current strong bullish bias. I think that the current figures indicate the possibility of a continued decline in the euro in the coming weeks. The ECB is increasingly signaling the end of monetary tightening.
Economic calendar for US and EU
EU – German Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 06:00 UTC
On September 8, the economic calendar contains only one minor event. The influence of the news background on trader sentiment for the rest of the day might be absent or very weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips
It was possible to sell the pair after a close below 1.0864 on the H1 chart, targeting 1.0810 and 1.0744. A rebound from the 1.0810 level confirmed that short positions could be left open. Currently, both targets have been achieved, but sell positions can still be held open with the target at 1.0637, given there was a rebound from the 1.0744 level. A buying opportunity will emerge when the price closes above the 1.0744 level, aiming for 1.0810.
