EUR/USD Extends The Bounce, Upside Limited
Key Takeaways:
- Bullish Sentiment in EUR/USD: The pair shows a potential bullish trend, overcoming short-term resistance with key indicators like the RSI above 50 and price movement above the DEMA. This suggests a positive momentum for EUR/USD in the near term.
- Key Data Releases Impact: Upcoming economic data from the USA, including PPI inflation and housing market stats, along with speeches from Federal Reserve bankers, are likely to significantly influence the currency pair's movements.
- Critical Resistance and Support Levels: Traders should monitor the pivotal resistance levels at 1.0723 and 1.0746, and support levels at 1.0696 and 1.0676. Breaks above or below these points could signal a stronger bullish or bearish trend respectively.
Morning Brief: Anticipating Market Openings and Currency Performance
As European markets gear up for opening, futures contracts suggest a positive start. EuroStoxx index futures are showing a 0.5% increase, while DAX index futures are 0.4% up from the previous close. The AUD and USD emerge as strong performers among G10 currencies, contrasting with the weaker JPY and NZD. GBPUSD approaches the 1.26 mark, buoyed by robust UK retail sales. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector witnesses growth, despite Bitcoin's slight pullback below $52,000.
Today's focus turns to the USA, with multiple significant releases. These include PPI inflation and real estate market data for January, and the University of Michigan's data for February. Speeches from Federal Reserve bankers could further influence USD markets.
Key Data Releases
- Canada Wholesalers' Sales (14:30): Expected at 0.9% m/m, aligning with previous data.
- USA PPI Inflation (14:30): Main measure at 0.6% y/y (from 1.0% y/y) and baseline measure at 1.6% y/y (from 1.8% y/y).
- USA Housing Market (14:30): Building permits anticipated at 1,510 thousand (from 1,493 thousand), with construction starts unchanged at 1,460 thousand.
- USA University of Michigan Data (16:00): Consumer sentiment projected at 80.0 (from 79.0), with sub-indexes and inflation expectations also under review.
Central Bankers' Speeches
- ECB's Schnabel (9:45)
- Fed's Barkin (14:00), Barr (15:10), Daly (18:10)
- Bank of England's Huw (20:40)
Technical Market Overview
EUR/USD has bounced from a low of 1.0696, with bulls attempting an upward movement. Despite overcoming short-term resistance, gains remain capped at 1.0723 and 1.0746, with a local high at 1.0785. Supports are identified at 1.0696 and 1.0676, and current momentum leans positively towards bullish control.
EUR/USD H1 Intraday Indicator Analysis:
- Buy signals from 14 out of 22 technical indicators.
- Sell signals from 3 indicators; 7 remain neutral.
- 11 out of 18 moving averages favor a Buy signal, with 7 indicating Sell.
Sentiment Analysis: The overall sentiment leans bullish (59% bullish vs. 41% bearish). This trend is consistent with last week's data (61% bulls vs. 39% bears), though the last three days have shown a neutral sentiment (50% bulls vs. 50% bears).
Weekly Pivot Points:
- Upper ranges: WR3 - 1.08296, WR2 - 1.08114, WR1 - 1.07992
- Pivot: 1.07932
- Lower ranges: WS1 - 1.07810, WS2 - 1.07750, WS3 - 1.07568
EUR/USD Bullish Scenario:
- Hammer Candlestick: Indicates potential bullish reversal, suggesting buyers countering selling pressure.
- RSI: Above 50, hinting at bullish momentum without overbought conditions.
- Moving Averages: Price above DEMA suggests bullish signs, with EMA serving as a future benchmark.
- Support Levels: Holding above key support may underpin further bullish movements.
EUR/USD Bearish Scenario:
- Bearish Patterns: Bearish engulfing and shooting star patterns signal potential trend reversals.
- Downward Trendline: Acts as a resistance, potentially maintaining the downtrend.
- EMA Resistance: Price below the 100-period EMA could signal continued bearish trend.
- RSI Retracement: A downturn in RSI could indicate waning bullish momentum, tilting towards bearish sentiment.
Key Levels for Traders:
- Bullish Breakout: Watch for moves above key resistance levels for bullish confirmations.
- Bearish Rejection: A decline below support levels may prompt tests of lower supports.
Practical Insights for Traders
Bullish traders should monitor for sustained movements above key resistance levels, indicating stronger bullish control. Conversely, bearish traders need to watch for price rejections at resistance or breaks below support, signaling potential downward trends. Both scenarios require close observation of pivotal levels, indicators, and market sentiment to navigate these market conditions effectively.
Useful Links
Important Notice
The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.
Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.
