Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY
The test of 149.62, coinciding with the upward movement of the MACD line from zero, prompted a buy signal that led to a price increase of around 15 pips.
Buyers seem to be hesitant to act around the 150 level, so expecting a strong surge in dollar beyond this level may be wrong. Furthermore, the market will likely be influenced by today's data on retail sales and industrial production, in which a sharp increase in the former will intensify inflationary pressure in the US, leading to an interest rate hike by the Fed as early as November this year. The speeches of FOMC members John Williams and Michelle Bowman will also be of interest and will impact the direction of USD/JPY.
For long positions:
Buy when the price hits 149.77 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.16. Growth will occur in continuation of the bull market, supported by strong data from the US. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.
Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.51, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.77 and 150.16.
For short positions:
Sell when the price reaches 149.51 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 149.16. Pressure will return in the event of central bank intervention or very weak US statistics. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.
Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.77, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.51 and 149.16.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY
Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY
Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
