Early in the European session, gold is trading around the psychological level of 2,300, with a strong bullish trend and overbought signals according to the daily chart. Gold has reached extreme levels that are observed according to the Murray indicator in the 2,312 area. This could be a key point for a strong technical correction in the coming days.
The market is showing some uncertainty ahead of the employment data that will be published in the United States on Friday. A fall in the Treasury yields favored the positive outlook for gold. Hence, a technical correction towards the support of 2,290 is likely to occur below +2/8 Murray.
A sharp break of the uptrend channel forming since March 25 on the H4 chart could be the beginning of a trend reversal. So, the metal could reach the support of 2,267. Finally, below this area, the price could accelerate its fall until reaching the 200 EMA located at 2,150.
On the other hand, in case the XAU continues to rise, it is likely to try to reach +2/8 Murray located at 2,312. A rejection of this level could be seen as an opportunity to sell. From this point, we could expect a technical correction for the next few days.
Our sell signal could be activated in case gold breaks out of the uptrend channel or in case of a consolidation below the SMA 21 located at 2,267. Then, it could reach 2,250, 2,218, 2,187, and finally 2,150.
On Friday, there will be strong volatility due to the Nonfarm Payrolls. So, we recommend being very careful as there could be an unexpectedly strong movement in gold. In this case, it is better to wait for the news to pass and then make a trading decision according to the trend.
