EUR/USD is trading around 1.0743, below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA. We can see on the H4 chart that the euro made a strong bearish move after falling below 1.0864 and below the technical pattern.
Yesterday after the inflation data from the United States, the euro fell to the low of 1.0724, which represents a decline of more than 1.2%. This fall of the euro was triggered by the inflation data from the US. It suggests that investors expect that the Fed will continue to tighten its monetary policy and in turn, this could cause the euro to continue falling in the medium term.
Before the US inflation data, the euro was trading within a triangle pattern. A break of this pattern confirmed the bearish movement, also the strong resistance at 1.0864 acted as a strong top.
Currently, we see that the euro has consolidated around 0/8 Murray located at 1.0742. In case the euro trades above this area, a technical rebound is expected to occur in the coming days and EUR/USD could reach 3/8 Murray at 1.0803.
On the other hand, a consolidation below 1.0740 could be a sign of a further bearish movement and we expect the euro to weaken and reach -2/8 Murray located at 1.0681.
Technically, the euro is showing a bearish signal according to the eagle indicator. Because there was a strong bearish movement the previous day, it is expected that there will be a technical rebound from the current price levels that could cover more than 50% of this fall. So, the price could even reach 61.8% Fibonacci and then resume its bearish cycle.
Our trading plan is to buy above 0/8 Murray with targets 1.0772, 1.0803, and 1.0833. We expect a technical rebound in the EUR/USD pair in the coming hours due to the formation of a double bottom pattern.
