After a relatively active first half of the previous week, the market seems to have entered a sort of stagnant phase. While we witnessed moderate activity on Friday, volatility was quite modest. In general, the pound stayed put. The market needed to take a break to regroup, especially considering the significant events scheduled for this week. It's not just about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The flash estimate of eurozone inflation will be published on Tuesday, and given the expected sharp slowdown in inflation, we might see a fairly sharp increase in volatility. However, there are no significant economic releases on Monday. While the UK will release its labor market data, it is actually not that significant. As I mentioned earlier, the market needs to take a breather. Of course, the market cannot stand still, but the scale of movements will probably be insignificant. The pound will likely shift towards a bearish bias due to the expected decline in lending.
We observed a local bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair, but there were no significant changes. The quote briefly jumped to the 1.2150 level, and the volume of long positions decreased, leading to a reversal.
On the four-hour chart, the increase in buying volumes did not push the RSI to upwardly cross the 50 middle line, thereby reflecting bearish sentiment among traders. The indicator is currently moving within the 30/50 area.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which is in line with the general market sentiment.
Outlook
If the price fails to stay above the 1.2150 level, this may lead to renewed selling pressure. A bearish scenario would mean that the pair could move towards 1.2000/1.2150. However, staying above the 1.2150 level may indicate a move towards the 1.2200/1.2250 range.
Complex indicator analysis suggests a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.
