NZD/USD is trading in a bearish zone: medium-term, it's below resistance levels 0.6110 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.6080 (200 EMA on the daily chart); long-term, it's below resistance levels at 0.6400, 0.6455 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.6485 (50% Fibonacci level in the downward wave from 0.7465 in February 2021 to the level of 0.5510 reached in October 2022). In the main scenario, we expect a resumption of the decline. The first signal could be a break below the support level at 0.5841 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
A break of today's low at 0.5822 and yesterday's low at 0.5804 will confirm our assumption.
In an alternative scenario, the corrective rise of NZD/USD will continue up to resistance levels at 0.5902 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 0.5925 (50 EMA on the daily chart), and at most, up to the resistance level at 0.5973 (23.6% Fibonacci level). Only a break above the key resistance level at 0.6080 and the level of 0.6110 will take the pair into the medium-term bullish market zone.
Short positions remain preferable.
Support levels: 0.5841, 0.5800, 0.5775, 0.5700, 0.5600, 0.5565, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.5860, 0.5890, 0.5900, 0.5925, 0.5973, 0.6000, 0.6040, 0.6080, 0.6100, 0.6110, 0.6140, 0.6200, 0.6258, 0.6310, 0.6385, 0.6400, 0.6485, 0.6500, 0.6510
