Global markets edged higher last week, evidently believing more positive news at the moment. Reportedly, the recently-held Fed meeting decided on another pause in the rate hike cycle, and would likely continue to do so in the future. Very weak data on new job creation in the US and the ongoing localization of the Middle East crisis also contributed to the positive mood.
The report released by the US Department of Labor on Friday indicated a significantly less-than-expected increase in news jobs in October - 150,000 jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. September's data has also been revised downward from 336,000 to 297,000. The overall unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, while the average hourly wages showed a growth of only 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% and a revised September value of 0.3%.
All this solidified the belief that, given the current state of affairs, the Fed will not raise interest rates further, effectively ending its latest cycle of rate hikes aimed at combating inflation. Naturally, in response to such sentiments, a rally began in the stock markets.
And since the Fed took a pause in raising rates, other central banks worldwide will likely do the same.
Friday's news became a strong pressure factor for dollar, putting downward pressure on its exchange rate. As a result, the ICE dollar index dropped from above 106.00 points to 105.00 points. The decline will continue if Treasury yields also resume falling.
Most likely, the global changes in market sentiment will lead to continued stock market rallies on Monday, accompanied by a weakening of dollar. News from the Middle East also remains crucial, because if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict does not escalate beyond the borders of Gaza and Israel, the positive market sentiment will persist throughout the week.
Forecasts for today:
EUR/USD
The pair currently trades just below the resistance level of 1.0750. A move higher, driven by positive market sentiment, could lead to an increase towards 1.0845.
USD/CAD
The pair fell as dollar demand weakened due to the pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle. This, along with the ongoing high prices of crude oil, could lead to a further drop below 1.3635, towards 1.3570.
