The probability that the Federal Reserve System will not make changes to the current parameters of credit and monetary policy at the December meeting is approaching 100%, according to CME Group data.
However, the Federal Reserve will not start reducing the interest rate, at least not before the second half of next year. The Fed leadership still believes that there are few arguments in favor of inflation being on a "smooth path" to the target level of 2%. According to economists, the pause in the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may prevent further dollar appreciation but does not necessarily lead to a significant decline.
The Fed has room, at least, to keep the interest rate at high levels for quite a long time. This is still a bullish fundamental factor for the dollar, especially if other major central banks start easing their policies earlier than the Fed.
From a technical point of view, the dollar index (CFD #USDX on the MT4 terminal) is attempting to break through the important resistance level of 104.45 (144 EMA on the daily chart) to return to the zone of the medium-term bullish market. However, for a definitive recovery of the upward trend, the price will need to overcome the zone of important short-term resistance levels: 105.22 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 105.40 (50 EMA on the daily chart), 105.62 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).
However, long positions are likely to be opened after consolidation in the zone above the resistance level of 104.45, and the "fastest" signal here could be the breakout of the important short-term resistance level of 104.58 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart).
An alternative scenario would be associated with breaking through key support levels: 104.25 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 104.10 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), separating the medium-term bullish market from the bearish one, yesterday's local low of 103.95, and with further, deeper corrective decline to support levels: 100.45, 100.00, separating the long-term bullish market from the bearish one.
Support levels: 104.25, 104.10, 104.00, 103.00, 102.00, 101.60, 101.00, 100.45, 100.00
Resistance levels: 104.45, 104.58, 105.00, 105.40, 105.98, 106.00, 106.80, 107.00, 107.32, 107.80, 108.00, 109.00, 109.25
