Analysis of macroeconomic reports:
For Monday, there are hardly any macroeconomic events. We can only highlight the report on new home sales in the United States. Perhaps it will trigger a market reaction of around 20 pips, no more. There will be nothing else interesting in the US, the EU, the UK, or Germany. Therefore, it will likely turn out as another "boring Monday."
Analysis of fundamental events:
Among the fundamental events on Monday, we can highlight European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. However, Lagarde has already spoken several times and will repeatedly speak again. There has been nothing interesting in her speeches lately. This is not surprising since no one expects any drastic changes from the ECB at the moment. Most members of the Governing Council have expressed support for keeping the key rate unchanged for an extended period. So, what can Lagarde or her colleagues tell us now?
General conclusion:
There are no interesting events on Monday. Perhaps Lagarde will finally announce something important, but hopes for this are frankly low. Therefore, most likely, we can expect a boring day. It is worth noting that both pairs can start a downward movement at any moment since they are both overbought.
Basic rules of a trading system:
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
